Thesis receiptPre-registered, timestamped, immutable — the proof, not a screenshot.
Yen carry unwind → crypto risk-off
A disorderly unwind of the yen carry trade within the next 90 days forces global risk deleveraging; BTC falls ≥20% from entry-date spot before position expiry.
Pre-registered
2026-07-27
Exited
2026-08-04
Criteria
3 + 1
Status
Exited by rule · discretionary
Return
-0.22R
Exit reasoning · logged at closeDiscretionary exit ahead of criteria: transmission broken — 5% yen strength in three sessions produced no risk-off; G2 intervention + Fed repo facility engineered the orderly unwind, suppressing the disorderly branch this thesis required. Exited at −0.22R with ~78% of premium preserved. Wrong on thesis, right on process.
Report card · graded separately, on purpose
BProcessWas every rule followed?
DOutcomeDid the mechanism work?
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Every trade starts as a pre-registered thesis with immutable exit criteria. No cherry-picking, no backfilling — the timestamp is the proof you called it before the market did.
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