Trade what you know before the market knows it.
Your edge is information. Your enemy is discipline. Tally makes every trade start as a pre-registered thesis, gates entries on measured narrative saturation, and enforces exits by rules you wrote before the money moved.
No card required · the journal is the product, not your P&L.
Yen carry unwind → global risk-off
Disorderly carry-trade unwind inside 90 days forces risk deleveraging; BTC −20% before expiry.
- ○BoJ explicitly signals hold through the window · BoJ statement
- ○Spec JPY net-short collapses without a selloff · CFTC CoT · weekly
- ○Carry-unwind narrative reaches mainstream front pages · NSI · daily
The premium is the stop. Nothing undefined, ever.
Ideas born in adrenaline must survive one night's sleep.
Invalidation and saturation — not chart lines, not vibes.
You can break a rule. You can't do it silently.
Judgment writes the thesis. Rules do the rest.
The Chris Camillo playbook — get in while awareness is low, get out when the market catches on — is easy to describe and brutal to execute. Tally turns it into a system with three moving parts.
Pre-registered theses
Every trade begins as a written, falsifiable thesis: mechanism, catalyst window, and the exact observable facts that would kill it. Criteria freeze when the thesis arms — future-you can fire them, never rewrite them.
Narrative Saturation Index
The Camillo edge, measured: news volume, outlet breadth, search and social interest, and what the options market already charges. Enter while the score is quiet. When it screams, that's not a signal to add — it's your take-profit.
Rule-enforced exits
Invalidation fired? Out, today, P&L irrelevant. Saturation triggered? Scale out by rule. Time exit at T−14. Exits are where discretion dies — so they're the first thing the system takes away from you.
Falsifiable, mechanism-mapped, calendar-anchored
Saturation below entry gate, checklist 100%
Best-priced convexity across venues, defined risk
Criteria + saturation monitored continuously
First rule that fires wins. No negotiating
Process and outcome graded separately
Why the system took you out is the product
Representative journal entries. One exit saved the thesis from hope; the other harvested it the day the edge stopped being one. Both fired without a human in the loop.
Election-year fiscal impasse → duration selloff
Budget standoff escalates; long-end yields reprice sharply within 60 days.
- ●Clean continuing resolution passes both chambers · Congressional record
- ○Auction demand normalizes (bid-to-cover ≥ trailing avg) · Treasury auctions
- ○Impasse coverage crosses into general news · NSI · daily
Criterion #1 fired (continuing resolution passed). Closed same day, −0.6R. P&L irrelevant — the thesis died, so the position did.
Under-covered chip export rule → single-name repricing
New export restriction quietly guts a supplier's key segment; market hasn't read the filing.
- ○Rule carve-out exempts the affected segment · Federal Register
- ●Sell-side notes + mainstream coverage of the exposure · NSI · daily
NSI 84 for three straight snapshots after front-page coverage — edge disseminated, scaled out by rule at +2.3R.
Pricing
Every plan starts free. Pay when the journal has proven it changes your behavior — that's the only honest pitch a discipline tool can make.
Journal
Available nowThe discipline layer, no wiring required.
- ✓Pre-registered theses with immutable criteria
- ✓24h cooling-off + entry checklist
- ✓Manual positions, fills & reviews
- ✓Works with any broker or venue
System
Rolling outThe full loop: measured awareness, watched exits.
- ✓Everything in Journal
- ✓Narrative Saturation Index per thesis
- ✓Invalidation watchers (calendars, CoT, news)
- ✓Auto-imported fills from connected accounts
- ✓Alerts when a criterion fires
Desk
Coming soonRules with hands: staged orders, enforced exits.
- ✓Everything in System
- ✓Order staging with precomputed size & limits
- ✓Rule-enforced exits (eligible venues)
- ✓Override log & process analytics
- ✓Team seats
Connected-execution features roll out per venue and jurisdiction; journal and monitoring work everywhere, with any broker.
Your next trade starts as a thesis.
Write it down. Pre-register the exits. Let the rules do the part you're bad at — everyone is.
Start free →